On Monday, April 20, the United States begins issuing refunds for the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump that were declared illegal by the Supreme Court in its landmark ruling in February. However, this is far more than a complex bureaucratic effort. It represents a delayed correction of a trade policy that burdened companies for months.
The scale of the process is unprecedented in U.S. history. Refunds of up to $166 billion are at stake, according to Tagesschau. Estimates from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model go even higher, reaching as much as $175 billion. For the initial phase of refunds alone, which is now starting, $127 billion has been allocated.
More than 56,000 importers have already registered for the process. According to court documents, over 330,000 importers paid tariffs on approximately 53 million shipments—tariffs that, in the Supreme Court’s view, Donald Trump did not have the authority to impose.
Collective payments planned
The refund process is therefore starting much sooner than initially suggested by the U.S. president. Following the Supreme Court’s decision, Trump had stated: “I assume this will be debated in court for another two years.”
In reality, Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade had already ordered the government in early March to begin the refund process, though he later granted additional time, as the existing system was simply not designed to handle such a large-scale operation.
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency (CBP) has now developed a new tool specifically for this purpose, called CAPE. Its role is to process refunds in bulk, allowing affected importers to receive compensation not for each individual shipment, but rather through consolidated electronic payments—potentially including interest.
What this means for businesses
For affected importers, tariff refunds theoretically provide a significant boost to liquidity. Funds previously tied up in tariffs are now returning to company accounts. But how realistic is this outcome?
Experts estimate that even under the best circumstances, a refund program of this magnitude will be complicated and time-consuming. Some businesses may not survive long enough to benefit. Small and medium-sized enterprises are particularly at risk, according to the Wall Street Journal. Many companies have already postponed key investments, and some business models are now on the verge of collapse.
Thousands of lawsuits—and fear of Trump’s backlash
In an effort to improve their chances of receiving refunds quickly, many companies have taken legal action. More than 3,000 lawsuits have been filed with the Court of International Trade. Among the prominent names are FedEx, Costco, and Nintendo.
However, many large U.S. corporations, such as Walmart, have avoided pursuing legal action—fearing potential backlash from Trump. Most of the companies that have filed claims are small businesses and microenterprises in urgent need of financial relief.
At the same time, some companies have sold their refund claims to investors in exchange for immediate cash, allowing them to remain solvent.
Uncertainty remains
The start of the refund process does not represent the long-awaited relief for businesses. This is especially true because Trump responded to the Supreme Court ruling by introducing new global tariffs of 10 percent—this time citing a different legal basis, Section 122 of the Trade Act. These tariffs took effect on February 24 and are already the subject of new legal challenges before the Court of International Trade.
For businesses, this means continued risks and ongoing uncertainty. Critics argue that Trump has significantly undermined confidence in the predictability of U.S. economic policy. This lack of trust is slowing investment—and ultimately affecting overall economic performance.
Court demands progress report
In conclusion, Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” may have done more harm than good for U.S. companies and the national economy. The public will soon learn how the administration is progressing with the refund process. Judge Eaton of the Court of International Trade has ordered the government to submit a status report on the processing of refund claims by April 28 at 12:00 PM.
