Tropical Storm Lee is projected to rapidly intensify into an “extremely dangerous” hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean by the upcoming weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center. As we approach the peak of the hurricane season in early September, Lee could reach major Category 3 status or higher by the end of the week, with potential impacts on the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. update states, “Lee is not far from hurricane strength, and it will likely achieve that status later today.” While the exact location and magnitude of the storm’s impacts are uncertain at this time, those in the potential affected areas are advised to monitor the progress of Lee and stay updated with further forecasts.
As of now, Tropical Storm Lee has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is approximately 1,300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. This includes the Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, and Antigua and Barbuda. Swells generated by Lee are anticipated to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, potentially causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. The hurricane center predicts that Lee’s winds could reach 150 mph by Sunday evening.
While it remains uncertain if Lee will directly impact the US mainland, it is essential for those in the eastern Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas, to closely monitor the forecast. Even if the hurricane stays out at sea, the East Coast could still face dangerous surf and rip currents. As a reminder of the potential hazards, one person tragically lost their life due to a rip current in New Jersey over the recent Labor Day weekend.
Lee developed into a tropical storm on Tuesday, forming in the central tropical Atlantic and moving through warm waters. The National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will rapidly strengthen, a process known as rapid intensification. This occurs when a storm’s winds quickly strengthen over a short period, aided by warm ocean waters.
As Lee continues its path west-northwest, it will enter conditions increasingly favorable for strengthening. This includes abundant moisture, low wind shear, and above-average water temperatures spanning its projected trajectory. The hurricane center’s storm discussion noted that the intensity forecast for Lee is particularly optimistic for an initial prediction, but it is expected to become a formidable hurricane by the end of the forecast period.
Lee would be the fourth hurricane to reach this status during the current season, following Don, Franklin, and Idalia. It is expected to substantially increase in strength by the weekend, potentially becoming the third Category 3 hurricane or stronger this season.
Historically, September 10 marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season when the basin experiences its highest level of activity on average. While a flurry of tropical activity during this period is not uncommon, it can quickly become hazardous.
Thus far, the 2023 Atlantic season has been notably active, tracking above average for various metrics, including the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, according to Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.
In summary, Tropical Storm Lee is forecasted to rapidly escalate into an “extremely dangerous” hurricane. It is crucial for those in potentially affected areas to stay informed and prepared for the storm’s progression.
